Sunday, May 3, 2009

Northeastern Republicans

Arlen Specter's switch to the Democrats provides a good opportunity to examine the state of the Republican party in New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. 

Members of the House of Representatives, New England and Mid-Atlantic, by state: 
Maine: Dem-2, Rep-0
New Hampshire: Dem-2, Rep–0
Vermont: Dem-1, Rep-0
Massachusetts: Dem-10, Rep-0
Rhode Island: Dem-2, Rep-0
Connecticut: Dem-5, Rep-0
New York: Dem-26, Rep-3
New Jersey: Dem-8, Rep-5
Pennsylvania: Dem-12, Rep-7
Maryland: Dem-6, Rep-1
Delaware: Dem-0, Rep-1
Totals for the region are Democrats-74, Republicans-17. And I would expect the Republican number to shrink still further if Democrats control the 2010 redistricting in New York and New Jersey, as it looks like they will, and after longtime Republican incumbents like Peter King (NY) and Mike Castle (DE) retire from their increasingly Democratic districts. 

In those same eleven states, the Senate picture is even bleaker for the Republicans. Now that Specter has switched, they have only three senators – Judd Gregg (NH) who does not plan to run for reelection in 2010, and Susan Collins (ME) and Olympia Snowe (ME). Snowe may follow Spector and switch parties at some point. As the most moderate Republican Senator, she may feel unwelcome in a rump GOP increasingly hostile to moderates. Current Senate totals for the region: Democrats-19, Republicans-3. (Note: Democratic Senate total includes independent senators Bernie Sanders (VT) and Joe Lieberman (CT) both of whom caucus with the Democrats. Ideologically Sanders is at the leftward edge of the party, Lieberman is on the right.)

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